The causal nexus of geopolitical risks, consumer and producer confidence indexes: evidence from selected economies

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dc.authorscopusid57219450466
dc.authorscopusid57211745574
dc.authorscopusid57202608331
dc.contributor.authorPehlivanoğlu, Ferhat
dc.contributor.authorAkdağ, Saffet
dc.contributor.authorAlola, Andrew Adewale
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-11T19:57:26Z
dc.date.available2024-09-11T19:57:26Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.departmentİstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractThe effect and significant of risk in every real life situation is increasingly becoming a pertinent subject in almost every field, thus causing potential adverse effects on both the individual’s propensity to consume and invest. Also, the likelihood of the exposure of the developing countries to geopolitical risks amid experience of economic fragilities as indicated by security indexes has remained an important driver of the global market dynamics. On this note, this study is aimed at examining whether related risks in selected economies (Brazil, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Russia, China, South Africa, Mexico, and Turkey) with geopolitical risks have a significant effect on consumer and producer confidence indexes by employing a monthly data between January 2004 and June 2018. A combination of two panel causality tecniques that examined both the panel and country-specific causality were employed to examine both the panel causal relationship and the country-specific causal relationship. The study found a causality relationship from geopolitical risk index to the consumer and producer confidence index for the overall panel. Also, the results in terms of the individual country showed that causality from the geopolitical risk index to the consumer confidence index is valid for Indonesia, South Africa, and Mexico. Meanwhile, the causality from geopolitical risk index to producer confidence index is valid for China, Indonesia, South Korea, and Mexico. The study presented useful financial and securtity policy measure for the examined panel of selected countries. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11135-020-01053-y
dc.identifier.endpage1273en_US
dc.identifier.issn0033-5177en_US
dc.identifier.issue4en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85092777615en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1en_US
dc.identifier.startpage1261en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-020-01053-y
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11363/8265
dc.identifier.volume55en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media B.V.en_US
dc.relation.ispartofQuality and Quantityen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.snmz20240903_Gen_US
dc.subjectConsumer confidence index; Developing countries; Geopolitical risk; Granger causality; Producer confidence indexen_US
dc.titleThe causal nexus of geopolitical risks, consumer and producer confidence indexes: evidence from selected economiesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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