Techno-Economic and Environmental Evaluation of a Campus-Scale Floating Photovoltaic System in Burdur, Türkiye

Abstract

This study presents a techno-economic and environmental evaluation of a campus-scale floating photovoltaic (FPV) system proposed for the campus lake of Burdur Mehmet Akif Ersoy University in Burdur, Türkiye. The assessment integrates lake-surface utilization, site-specific solar-resource conditions, actual campus electricity demand, discounted life-cycle economic analysis, environmental assessment, deterministic sensitivity analysis, and multi-parameter Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. The contribution of the study lies in integrating sitespecific FPV sizing and actual campus electricity-demand matching with discounted life-cycle economic analysis, environmental assessment, deterministic sensitivity analysis, and multi-parameter Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis within a single assessment framework. A total lake area of 12,000 m² is considered, with 40% allocated to FPV deployment. Using 580 W crystalline-silicon modules, 3000 h/year of solar duration, and a performance ratio of 0.80, the proposed 1.08 MW system is estimated to generate approximately 2592 MWh/year, corresponding to nearly 30% of annual campus electricity demand. Under the harmonized 25-year life-cycle assumptions, including 0.5% annual energy degradation, 2% annual O&M escalation, an inverter replacement in year 15, and an 8% discount rate, the discounted LCOE is approximately 0.0745 USD/kWh, the NPV is approximately 0.68 million USD, the IRR is approximately 12.91%, and the discounted payback period is approximately 10.97 years. A 10,000-run Monte Carlo analysis yields a positive NPV in approximately 97.5% of simulations. The system could also avoid approximately 1166 tCO₂/year under the adopted grid-emission factor. The results support FPV as a promising campus-scale option while emphasizing that detailed PV simulation, engineering design, and site-specific ecological monitoring are required before implementation.