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    A CMIP6-based drought assessment over Küçük Menderes Basin,Türkiye
    (SPRINGER WIEN, Prinz-Eugen-Strasse 8-10, A-1040 Vienna, AUSTRIA, 2025) Rotbeei, Farzad; Nuri Balov, Mustafa; Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh; Vaheddoost, Babak
    Droughts are the phenomenon of which their magnitude and frequency are forecasted to escalate over time primarily due to the impacts of climate change and global warming. Hence, the potential consequences of the expected drought events are of the great importance in performing efective adaptation and regional mitigation strategies. The objective of the current study is to explore the consequences of climate change on the future droughts in Küçük Menderes Basin in western Türkiye. This objective will be addressed by examining the outputs of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) incorporated within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP6), with particular emphasis on two contrasting emission trajectories: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The daily precipitation and temperature projections are then utilized in determination of the so-called Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought indices with consideration to 2015–2039 as near future, 2040–2069 as mid-term future, and 2070–2099 as late future time frames. According to projections based on the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the number of dry months is anticipated to escalate by approximately 26.12% and 39.80%, respectively, toward the end of the twenty-frst century (2070–2099), in contrast to the reference period (1985–2014). Results of the current study provide valuable insights for developing adaptation strategies to address future consequences of drought events in the Küçük Menderes Basin amid evolving climate conditions.
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    Meteorological Drought Assessment in Mountainous Regions Based on Outputs of General Circulation Models
    (CRC Press, 2023) Balov, Mustafa Nuri; Vaheddoost, Babak; Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh
    The availability of water among the different parts of the hydrological cycle has a significant impact on the environment and ecological balance as well as on the food industry and tourism. Drought, which can be considered as the shortage of available water in time and/or space, has become more frequent and intense in recent years. From the ecological point of view, studying the effect of climatic variables on the quantity and quality of flora and fauna needs multidisciplinary comprehensive research and measurements. However, the various impacts of extreme climatic events such as droughts on the economy, health, and welfare of society are highly interconnected with the environmental and ecological considerations of the climate system. © 2024 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
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    Projected Drought Intensification in the Büyük Menderes Basin Under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios
    (MDPI, MDPI AG, Grosspeteranlage 5, CH-4052 BASEL, SWITZERLAND, 2025) Rotbeei, Farzad; Nuri Balov, Mustafa; Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh; Vaheddoost, Babak
    The amplitude and interval of drought events are expected to enhance in upcoming years resulting from global warming and climate alterations. Understanding future drought events’ potential impacts is important for effective regional adaptation and mitigation approaches. The main goal of this research is to study the impacts of climate change on drought in the Büyük Menderes Basin located in the Aegean region of western Türkiye by using the outcomes of three general circulation models (GCMs) from CMIP6 considering two different emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Following a bias correction using a linear scaling method, daily precipitation and temperature projections are used to compute the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The effectiveness of the GCMs in projecting precipitation and temperature is evaluated using observational data from the reference period (1985–2014). Future drought conditions are then assessed based on drought indices for three periods: 2015–2040 (near future), 2041–2070 (mid-term future), and 2071–2100 (late future). Consequently, the number of dry months is projected and expected to elevate, informed by SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, during the late-century timeframe (2071–2100) in comparison to the baseline period (1985–2014). The findings of this study offer an important understanding for crafting adaptation strategies aimed at reducing future drought impacts in the Büyük Menderes Basin in the face of changing climate conditions.