Sensitivity Analysis in a Dengue Fever Transmission Model: A fractional order system approach

Abstract

The main purpose of the study of dengue fever transmission is to be able to determine the best approach to reduce human mortality and morbidity caused by the disease. Therefore, it is essential to identify the relative importance of the different factors that contribute to disease transmission and prevalence. Here, a fractional order epidemiological model describing the dengue fever transmission is presented, as well as the basic reproduction number, denoted by R0. The initial disease transmission is highly significant with the basic reproduction number, R0. Thus, the needs for conducting an analysis that tells us how sensitive the threshold quantity of R0 is, with respect to its parameters, is very crucial. The sensitivity analysis is performed to calculate the sensitivity indices of the reproduction number R0, that measures the disease transmission and the endemic equilibrium point, that measures disease prevalence to the parameters model. It has been shown that for the reproduction number, the most sensitive parameters are the mortality rate of the adult mosquito and the mosquito biting rate. However, the equilibrium proportion of infected humans is very sensitive to the transition rate from the immature vector stage to the adult stage, and human recovery rate. These suggest that dengue control policies that target the vector population and recovery rate of individuals can be a great resolution in controlling dengue.