Escape from COVID-19 pandemic to safe haven

Abstract

Gold, which is accepted as a safe haven by households, is known as an investment tool that is preferred especially in times of crisis and uncertainty. Especially in recent days, the uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the visible increase in Turkey's 5-year CDS data has led investors in Turkey to grams of gold, which is considered a safe haven. In this context, this study aims to test the long-term relationship between daily case-related deaths and Turkey's 5-year CDS data with gram gold prices in Turkish lira during the COVID-19 pandemic. The long-term relationship between the variables was tested with the autoregressive distributed lag bound test (ARDL bound test) applied to the daily data for the period March 17, 2020–April 11, 2020. For the application of ARDL bound test, the stationarity of the variables was tested with unit root tests such as augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP). According to the ARDL bound test findings, there is a statistically significant and positive relationship between the number of case-related deaths and the gram gold prices in Turkish lira in the long run. However, it has been found that Turkey's 5-year CDS data does not have a significant long-term relationship with gram gold prices in Turkish lira.