Estimating COVID-19 Dynamics in Afghanistan

Abstract

Little reliable information on novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is available from war-torn countries, including Afghanistan. The current study estimates the pandemic features based on currently available data to forecasting future challenges of preventive strategies and emergency response using mathematical modeling. The infection fatality and recovery rates were estimated by 1.8% and 20.8%, respectively. The average growth rates of infection, death, and recovery among the Afghanistan population were estimated as 0.2, 0.2, and 0.5, respectively. Also, it was estimated that approximately 6 million people infected in the urban area, which may lead to approximately 11 thousand deaths. However, the features of the pandemic, marks that Afghanistan needs more time to pass the pandemic. Along with this, inadequate community engagement and low abiding to health advice, including social distancing, lack of personnel and testing capacities in the provinces, shortage of laboratory testing supplies, insufficient infection prevention, and control measures in health facilities in some of the provinces, limited access to and response capacities are the main challenges to fight against COVID-19. Therefore, the majority of infected cases and deaths may not be reported, and preventive strategies effectively in Afghanistan could severely be disrupted by several socio-cultural, financial, political, and administrative obstacles.