Does crude oil output aid economy boom or curse in Nigeria? An inference from "Dutch disease"

Abstract

Purpose – A reflection on some supposed oil exporting states constantly reminds of the (in) validity of the resource curse hypothesis and environmental consequences of oil exploration. In Africa, especially the case of Nigeria, the argument has remained whether the country’s voluminous deposit of crude oil has positively affected the livelihood of the people. The study aims to examine the impact of oil production on the income level in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach – In this context, the study first examined validity of Dutch disease in Nigeria, thus providing a foundation to further establish the resource curse hypothesis. As such, the impact of crude oil production (CRUDE), square of crude oil production (CRUDESQ), crude oil reserves (RESERVES) and population (POP) on economic growth over the period of 1980–2018 is examined through the combination of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), fully-modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and canonical cointegration regression (CCR) methods. Findings – While the study revealed the existence of Dutch disease in Nigeria, the resource curse hypothesis is also valid. However, the study found that the resource curse hypothesis in Nigeria can be over-turned when the CRUDE attains a certain maximum threshold, i.e. when crude oil output is doubled over time. In addition, either of crude RESERVES or oil rent (RENT) is seen as a limiting factor to economic growth while POP poses a positive and desirable impact on the country’s economic development. Originality/value – Thus, the implication of a U-shaped relationship between oil production and income level is that Nigeria’s natural resources exploration could be employed to over-turn the potential of resource curse hypothesis by increasing exploration while the sources of leakages and misappropriation of the oil revenues are deliberately mitigated. Other useful socio-economic policies were proposed for the Government.